Predicting sports is never an exact science. Yet some sports have fewer outcomes and variables, making them marginally easier to predict.
Sports are played by humans, using their physical bodies and minds. Thus, they are akin to many pressures, making all predictions essentially unpredictable. Yet some sports are more built around patterns and routine, making it slightly easier to guess their outcomes. For those placing a bet, knowing which sports are easier to predict can give them a distinct advantage.
What Makes Sport Easy to Predict?
The only real way a sport can become more predictable, or easier to guess the outcome of, is to reduce the potential variables within it. As a bettor, having more potential winning selections is also an advantage. When you use the top operators and log onto a bet app download, you will inevitably be presented with a range of markets and options to bet on them. These can include more than just the winner and loser, allowing you to bet on stats and even make accumulators.
Consider a horse race, particularly a world-famous one like the Grand National in the United Kingdom. This can have around 34 runners, making 34 potential outcomes. Now consider a boxing match, in which the outcome is a win, loss or draw. That only brings three outcomes, making a correct prediction somewhat easier. Of course, there are variables within this which alter odds and probability, but you really only have three choices to make.
Taking the horse racing analogy, you could also increase the winning selections. For example, the option to each-way bet, which involves picking a horse to come in the top three or four, increases the winning selections. If the Grand National were taking place with 34 runners, some bookmakers would pay out to fourth or fifth place. This would take the selections from a 1 in 34 win to just under 1 in 7.
Why Tennis Comes Out on Top
Tennis has to be one of the most straightforward sports to bet on, and thus one of the easiest to predict. There are several factors that contribute to this. Firstly, it only has two possible outcomes, in that either one player or the other wins or loses. There are no ties or draws.
Added to this, you only have one player to research. This is unlike a team, where you have to check the form of multiple players, then predict how they will gel as a unit. Instead, you can dive into player data, of which there is a lot for tennis players. This may include form, previous wins, and even their records on different types of courts.
The only downside is that odds for favourites are often not that attractive. As elite players win most matches, you really need an upset to back and win with an outside player, though it does happen.
Predicting Popular US Sports and Leagues
Popular US sports and leagues are defined as the main ones based in the United States: NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, and MLS. Of these, NBA tends to be the easiest to predict, at least when you are betting simply on a winner. Favourites win around 65-68% of the time during the regular season. However, this is closely followed by the NFL, where favourites tend to win around 65-67% of the time. This does change a lot when it gets to playoffs and weekly schedules, however.
The MLS is the hardest to predict, as soccer is in general. As it is low-scoring and relies on individual parts within a team to function, the gap between favourite and underdog becomes much closer. However, this can provide some surprising odds upsets.
This leaves hockey and baseball somewhere in the middle ground. Hockey, for example, is inherently chaotic on a game-by-game basis. It only takes a quick turnaround or slip from the better team to turn a game on its head.
What to Avoid
There are certain bets and markets that may reduce chances considerably. Trying to bet on the exact score is extremely hard, especially in games like soccer or tennis. Low-scoring and high-scoring games tend to be the worst, as they have so many variables.
It can also be hard to predict certain scorers. Even if someone is on a roll, or has a high touchdown or goal rate, the chances of them scoring first will always be low, especially in team sports with large fields.
Lastly, accumulator or parlay bets are not ideal. While they do offer big rewards from a relatively low stake, the risk level is high. The more bets you add, the more this begins to increase. In some instances, you are better off going for large bets that combine doubles and trebles, so that even if some result in losses, you still get a payout.
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